By 2030, Leon County will need 21,558 new jobs or 128 jobs every month between now and then, according to the Florida Chamber Foundation.
The foundation is meeting with business, community and elected leaders to assess what’s needed statewide by 2030. Town hall discussions, such as the one in Tallahassee on Thursday, offer a baseline for insights. More than 10,000 are slated to participate; two dozen counties have already done so.
“These are some tough questions,” Sen. Bill Montford said. “They’re very sensitive questions and they’re the kind of questions that make you uneasy. But that’s a good thing. If we don’t do this then we can’t improve.”
There’s much debate, and concern, over whether Tallahassee is on pace to meet the inevitable demand. Concerns continue to revolve around talent retention — the new currency for economic development. Also on the list is Tallahassee’s competitive edge in a global economy and a critical need for affordable housing, job diversification and high-wage jobs.
There’s much debate, and concern, over whether Tallahassee is on pace to meet the inevitable demand. Concerns continue to revolve around talent retention — the new currency for economic development. Also on the list is Tallahassee’s competitive edge in a global economy and a critical need for affordable housing, job diversification and high-wage jobs.
“Every industry in one way or another is going to get disrupted,” he said. “The nine million jobs we have right now in Florida are going to get disrupted if we’re not fully thinking about how we’re evolving.”
The local discussion was hosted by the Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce and Sachs Media Group. About 100 people attended and answered questions in a live poll questionnaire.
See full results from the survey here:
Discussions are part of a larger $1.5 million research project – the Florida 2030 Report – that’s slated to be complete by March 2018.
“There are very smart people in our offices trying to figure out on paper what Florida needs to do right. But these are some of the more important parts, getting leaders and residents to talk about what they see,” Carvajal said. “We’re involving people of all stripes and colors in every part of the state to get the perspective.
“To get Florida right, we’ve got to get it right not just for the 20 million people who are here today but for the 26 million people who are going to be here by 2030.”
Carvajal said about 90 percent of overall poll respondents say they’re more optimistic about the state’s economy than their region’s economy, which drops down to nearly half when looking at that level. But he was surprised to see Thursday’s group of business leaders say public safety was a weakness and getting worse in the region.
“That’s a statement that really concerns me. If the people who are in this room who are normally in safe environments feel that it’s not as good as it is then what about people who are not normally in safe environments?”
But there’s healthy optimism on where Tallahassee is headed since, the group said, various weak areas are improving.
Some say Tallahassee is entering a new economic era. The extension of the Blueprint sales tax and the introduction of a new money supply, $90 million for economic development projects, offers new opportunities for job and industry growth. in addition, the joint city-county Office for Economic Vitality will help shape that future landscape.
“I do believe we’re in a unique time as a community, and we have a lot of major decisions to make,” said Reggie Bouthillier, chairman of the Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce. “We’re sort of at a crossroads where we have all of this opportunity in front of us. But if we make the wrong decision, then we’ll potentially lose that opportunity.”
Bouthillier said he wasn’t surprised by some of the weak areas, such as group’s take on the business climate.
He said the climate could improve by streamlining the permit process so more businesses can open faster, in addition to reducing over-regulation and over-taxing. He applauded the city’s efforts to soon eliminate the business license tax.
“The question is are we going to change our mindset and do the necessary changes to get those jobs,” he said. “I believe there are key factors in doing that.”
The talent pipeline drew heavy debate and revealed challenges in Tallahassee and the surrounding counties. Locals continue to battle the “brain drain,” which refers to college graduates leaving Tallahassee for other cities.
Several national companies have opened Tallahassee offices to have a direct link to the talent pool.
Florida State’s master’s of applied economics program is ranked fifth best in the country, said Jerry Parrish, an economist with the Florida Chamber Foundation and an adjunct professor in the program. It has 20 to 30 students per year.
“These are high-value graduates who are highly trained in applied economics and have a lot of quantitative skills,” he said. “A lot of companies hire them … and every year the classes are getting better. When you are producing such talented people, especially with a known and award-winning program, you’re going to see companies move to take advantage of that.”
In addition, some said the talent pool starts at the K-12 level. In Jefferson County, for example, the school system has imploded due to more than a decade of poor performances and failing schools.
Ed Moore, president of Independent Colleges and Universities of Florida, said the state’s improved graduation rate of 77.5 percent is celebrated, which means that more than one out of five students who enter ninth grade don’t complete high school. It doesn’t count those who age out, especially in urban areas. If a student reaches 16 by the eighth grade, they can drop out of school.
“You can’t build a sustained economy when you’re losing the potential talent greater than one out of five,” Moore said. “That’s a big crisis.”
Moore said Florida is one of the few states that allows a student to emancipate from the school system if they have parental permission to do so. He said this is endorsed by statute, which he contends should be moved up to 18 years old.
“We’re guaranteeing that person is going to be a dependent on somebody else, in prison, on welfare. They are not going to have a successful life and we’re saying that by the age of 16, that’s OK with us,” Moore said. “That’s not real good public policy. You’re losing a huge potential chunk of your workers right away. They’ll be at entry level jobs, at best, for a long, long, long time.”
By 2030, Florida will:
Add 6 million more residents
Need 2 million more jobs
Attract more than 150 million annual visitors
Have 4 to 5 million more new drivers
Demand 76 percent more energy
Need 20 percent more water
Source: Florida Chamber Foundation
